Adeleke’s Victory: Was Osun a Political Bait for Tinubu’s 2027 Ambition? -

Governor Ademola Adeleke’s victory in the August 15 Osun governorship election has sparked celebrations across the state, but it has also triggered a different conversation:

Was Adeleke’s victory simply an opposition win, or could it have broader political implications for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of 2027?

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party, winner with 511,067 votes, defeating the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who scored 444,815 votes. Adeleke won by a margin of 66,252 votes.

However, a theory circulating on social media suggests that the APC may have been capable of winning Osun but could have chosen to make a political sacrifice with the 2027 presidential election in mind.

One X user argued that allowing an opposition candidate to win could help create the perception that the Tinubu administration permits genuine electoral competition, potentially strengthening its democratic credentials ahead of 2027.

The theory goes further, suggesting that a possible behind-the-scenes understanding may have existed to allow Adeleke to retain Osun, while securing his political goodwill and support for President Tinubu’s re-election bid.

There is, however, no established evidence that such an agreement existed or that the APC deliberately surrendered Osun.

READ ALSO: Osun Poll: Adeleke Won, But Davido’s Role Raises a Bigger Question for 2027

What has fuelled the speculation is Adeleke’s reaction after his victory. The governor thanked President Tinubu for his role in ensuring what he described as a free and fair election and reaffirmed his endorsement of the President for a second term in 2027.

Tinubu also congratulated Adeleke after the election, while the result itself demonstrated that an opposition candidate could defeat the ruling APC at the state level.

Yet another interpretation is that Adeleke simply won because voters preferred him.

The margin of more than 66,000 votes, coupled with his victory in 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas, provides a substantial electoral basis for that argument.

So, was Osun deliberately “sacrificed” for 2027?
At this point, that remains a theory—not an established fact.

What is certain, however, is that Adeleke’s endorsement of Tinubu has added another intriguing dimension to Nigeria’s political road to 2027.

The real test will be whether the political goodwill witnessed in Osun eventually translates into electoral support for Tinubu—or whether the two developments remain separate events.